We often invoke the game of chess when talking about conflict management and major political files, and dwell on the extent to which the game plans and tactics are similar and the hierarchy of the diplomatic, economic, military, media and other actors.
What we are experiencing today from a torrential stream of information about the hot war in Ukraine and the multiplicity of readings, whether about the reasons for its descent or about the outcome of the ongoing conflict there, truly makes us in front of a new kind of political chess game based on the background of an old political and ideological conflict, which knew its first beginnings with the end of the war The Second World War, through the Cold War, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the designation of Moscow as the “sole heir” of all the legacy of the Soviet Union, including the military arsenal, especially nuclear weapons, and permanent membership in the UN Security Council, i.e. the “veto right.” In contrast, many countries in the eastern camp joined the European Union and NATO.
Therefore, it is not possible to be certain and say that on February 24, 2022, the day of the declaration of war by the Russian forces’ invasion of the sovereign borders of the State of Ukraine, it is only an episode in a long series of escalation, threat and exchange of terror, which stopped for a while at the Crimea station in 2014 separating it from Ukraine Its annexation with Russia and the signing of the “Treaty of Mysink”, the capital of Belarus, a treaty that postponed the conflict and did not end it, because it included readings that differ according to the interests of each party. The Ukrainian Federation, while Russia preferred the political process first and then the military second, i.e. holding the elections first and then the military operation with the departure of the Russian forces, which means the continuation of tension in the region, up to April of 2019 and the overwhelming victory of the Western-leaning actor “Zelensky” On "Petro Poroshenko".
Moscow’s move to send armies to the Ukrainian borders came with a correspondence to both NATO and the United States of America at the end of 2021, which included new conditions that revealed some of the realities of the conflict, namely stopping the accession of the former eastern camp countries to NATO and reviewing the map of American missiles in European countries, which will be followed Since January 10, 2022, a series of meetings and negotiations, whether in person or remotely, between Russian and American officials and NATO leaders, but without a clear result and a return to ground zero.
Once again, we will return to the game of chess by moving files and actors and employing the power of the media, including promoting false news, moving the diplomatic machine and employing President Putin's reception spaces for his guests to fuel the conflict, such as sitting away from French President Macron on both sides of a large table, which many analysts interpreted as diverging views Between the Russians and the Europeans in the Ukrainian file, or his violation of diplomatic norms by going out alone after press conferences and without taking pictures, whether with Macron or with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and exchanging accusations and demonizing the other on digital platforms, especially Twitter and Facebook, and international media sites.
What is happening now in Ukraine is something greater than a conventional war, a mixture between a cold war and a hot one, greater than Putin’s recognition of the independence of the territories that belonged to Ukraine’s sovereignty in order to justify protecting the separatists and “legitimizing” the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It is a continuation of the balance of terror between Russia, the heiress of the Soviet Union, and America, it is a new version of the “Bay of Pigs” crisis in Cuba of 1962 between Kennedy and Khrushchev, but with new powders and a terrible development in digital media and tools of intelligence and diplomatic work, it is a new version of an old ideological struggle / New between the values of democracy and freedoms and the coordinates of national sovereignty and the conflict of terms between invasion, aggression and totalitarian regimes on the one hand, and private military intervention and border protection on the other hand.
The press follow-up has monitored the migration of thousands of Ukrainian citizens and other foreigners and students (including the Moroccans of Ukraine) to neighboring countries, as well as the suffering of reception, the air transport crisis, the rise in prices of raw materials and oil, and the halt in investments, even before February 24, on the one hand, and the exchange of threats between all From Russia, the European Union, NATO and America on the other hand, which means that these conditions have worsened after the recognition of the independence of the Ukrainian “Luhansk” and “Donetsk” regions, after which the sound of bullets and deaths and injuries increased, and the number of refugees doubled.
Which required a new round in the game of chess and new cards, both from Putin and his threat with a bad fate for every foreign party that tried to interfere in his conflict with Ukrainian President “Zelensky” and play the natural gas card on the one hand, and the declaration of Western and NATO countries to impose economic sanctions and separation from the banking system Swift, providing financial aid and military equipment, and undertaking to receive refugees in neighboring countries such as Moldova, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Germany on the other hand.
The Western diplomatic machine has moved at a faster pace, especially the European Commissioner, whose president has stated the possibility of the rapid integration of Ukraine into the European Union family, and the organization of a series of coordination meetings between EU ministers in Brussels, or through the intensive participation in the “Munich Security Conference” on February 23, which Russia was absent from it for the first time since 1991, with the use of the recommendations of the “Natural Gas Exporting Countries Forum” held in the State of Qatar on February 22, which pledged to compensate the European market with Russia’s share of natural gas, i.e. a third.
What prompts us to say that the war on Ukraine is not a conventional war and is not like other wars since the end of World War II, is that it is taking place on more than one field; In the field of media, “Russia Today” and “Sputnik” channels were blocked from the space of the European Union. In the field of sports, Russia was excluded from the World Cup in Qatar 2022. In the field of transportation, the airspace of the European Union was closed to Russian aviation. In the digital world, hacking and penetration of the websites of Russian banking, financial and security institutions took place. In the field of finance and business, stock exchanges and the “Russian ruble” currency tumbled to record levels compared to the US dollar and the European euro.
But the files of natural gas and the SWIFT banking system have received great media and political attention and numerous readings that lead the reader to strong conclusions, including that Russian gas, for example, will constitute a powerful weapon in penetrating the European Union countries and separating them from the political and economic alliance with America.
And talking here does not mean the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will supply Europe with 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, which giant European companies from France, Germany, the Netherlands and England have contributed to, along with the Russian company “Gazprom”, worth 30 billion dollars, and it lacks only Some German administrative statements, while recalling the Trump administration's objection to the Nord Stream 2 tube and that it will jeopardize the independence of the European decision.
Rather, providing Europe with Russian gas was an occasion to fuel the American conflict with the eastern camp. The New York Times, for example, published in June 1982 an article about the division of the western camp on the occasion of the Soviet Union’s agreement to supply European countries with gas, and that the Reagan administration was not satisfied with The construction of the gas pipeline linking Siberia with the countries of Europe: Germany, France and Italy, which cost the pipeline about $15 billion; Those countries preferred losing the cost of construction, i.e. $15 billion, over losing the alliance with America.
America is against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline passing through Belarus, the historical and political ally of Russia, and with the GTS UCRAIN pipeline continuing through Hungary, which is strongly rejected by Putin’s Russia, which has greatly reduced the throughput of the Ukraine pipeline, pending its final closure. At the same time, America sought to ensure the flow of natural gas to European homes and companies through some countries, such as Egypt and Algeria, which doubled supplies during the month of January, which will put it in a confrontation with yesterday’s comrades “Putin’s Russia” and the comrades of the eastern camp in the future, in addition to a state Qatar and other countries.
The European Union and America have preferred economic, media and digital war, because they know very well that it will kill Russia, and that when they isolate certain Russian banks, such as Sberbank and VTB, from the SWIFT global system, it is because they know that Sberbank, for example, is in charge of disbursing pensions and wages, This means that it seeks to strike social stability, because any economic cost has a social cost.
But what is interesting in this war is the departure of Switzerland from its neutrality by announcing sanctions against Putin’s Russia, and Germany’s announcement of allocating 100 billion euros annually for armaments, in an important qualitative development for Germany since the Second World War.
We are living the seventh day of the invasion of the Ukrainian border with all its tragedies, where the world is holding its breath waiting for new cards to be revealed in an exciting game of chess between great players who know each other well. Therefore, the announcement of the end of the game or war will be a declaration of the end of the arrangements of the new world order. We will wait...
